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Posted by Jason Wojciechowski on Thursday, August 14. 2008 17:28 | |

The word is that Trevor Ariza is gone. L.A. is only willing to pay him the midlevel exception, and this has apparently made him upset enough that he's willing to consider offers from other teams, even if those teams can also only offer him the midlevel (like Cleveland). I think this is eminently reasonable all the way around. Ariza got a lot of attention in this year's playoffs because it seemed like he was involved in every crucial play, from stealing inbounds passes to hitting clutch threes. Everyone talked during the playoffs about how much improvement he had shown.

But compare his regular season numbers to his 06-07 season with Orlando.

Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	FG	3-point	FT
22.4	8.9	4.4	1.1	1.0	.539	.000	.620
24.4	8.9	4.3	1.8	1.7	.460	.319	.710

Shockingly similar, right? The Lakers asked him to shoot the ball from the outside more, so his FG took a hit, but a combination of one extra shot per game plus taking two threes per game made up for shooting worse, in terms of his points scored. (Ariza's effective FG% dropped from .539 to .511.) Ariza did go from a solid steals guy to one of the top steals guys in the league (tenth in steals per game, second in steal percentage), and his FT% did improve (but he shot one fewer of them per game -- again, his role with the team didn't really let him get to the line very often).

The basic stats aren't hiding a deeper story, either: Ariza's Win Shares, Offensive and Defensive Rating, PER, and rate stats (e.g. Steal Percentage) mostly show a guy who is improved over the 21-year-old version of himself, but not to the point where you'd commit to five years of big money with him or something.

If it were my money, I'd bet that we saw a playoff mirage from Ariza, not a genuine leap forward. He basically did exactly the same thing he did in the regular season, he just happened to hit 47% of his threes instead of 31%. Is it possible that after an entire offseason of work on his shooting (which we heard about incessantly), he jumped from "bad" to "won't kill you" and then from "won't kill you" to "Ray Allen" as soon as the regular season ended? I guess. But it's far more likely that he was riding a hot streak, and that he'll revert to a sub-35% shooter from downtown next year.

This is not to say that Ariza doesn't have value, because his explosiveness and his defensive prowess certainly are worth something. It's just that in a luxury tax situation, where you might have determined that you can only keep one of Ariza and Odom unless one of them is willing to stay on the cheap (e.g. the midlevel exception), you can't afford to overpay based on perceptions created by small samples.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski at 08:26 | |

The MLB All-Star rosters will now have 33 men on them. I will categorically state that this is stupid and insane.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski at 22:38 | |

I'm sure someone has said something along these lines before, but isn't it incredibly frustrating to see a tennis game, set, or match end when a ball hits the net and trickles over, unreachable by the opponent? Why don't we have those play as essentially lets, forcing the players to replay the point?

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski at 20:50 | |

Will Leitch wrote this a couple of weeks ago, and the part that caught my eye was:

The Cardinals are currently a game out of first in the NL Central, but that's far from some grand accomplishment. Their offense has imploded — the one Cardinals win against Cleveland over the weekend was a 3-1 victory behind two Pujols solo homers and a wild pitch — and Pujols has zero protection in the lineup. . . . Pujols is walking more, yes, but more to the point, he's straining to make something happen, swinging at pitches outside the strike zone and overextending himself in a way that, say, Barry Bonds was just patient and blase enough never to do. When you're constantly batting with no one on base, and you're bored with walking, you start swinging at anything. Only pitchers as sloppy as Tomo Ohka are throwing him strikes.

I had a sneaking suspicion that this might be completely wrong. Luckily, the remarkable Fangraphs exists.

First, Pujols is walking more: 18.6% walk rate this year compared to 16.6% last year. I question whether this is his lineup or the continued evolution of Pujols, though: remarkably, Pujols has increased his walk rate every single year he's been in the league. He started out at 10.5% in 2001 and has seen a jump of at least 0.2% each year. So while the walk rate is higher, the point isn't really proven.

Where Fangraphs really gets useful is in its PitchFX data, and that data tells us that Pujols is swinging at more pitches out of the zone this year than last, but it's 21.9% vs. 21.6%. That's not what I'd guess would stand up as a statistically significant difference. Much more significant, and this may be what Leitch's eyes are telling him, is that Pujols is swinging at more pitches in the zone: 63.8% last year, up to 68.7% this year.

So while there's not nothing to what Leitch says, it's not as dramatic as all that either. I'll count this as another nail in the coffin of the myth of lineup protection.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski at 14:15 | |

Sigh. Looks like Tommy John surgery for Josh Outman. Outman and Braden have been a toss-up as the ace of the staff so far this year, and while Vin Mazzaro has pitched well, he's up in what was supposed to be Dana Eveland's spot. Gio Gonzalez is now going to have to step up because it's more or less clear that Dana Eveland is not a major-league starter. Beyond Gio, we're looking at the likes of Edgar Gonzalez, the recently signed Shawn Chacon, Sean Gallagher, and Jerome Williams. Gonzalez has the most potential of this group, but he's probably also the least likely to reach his upside. I'm guessing that by mid-August, Oakland will be living with Sean Gallagher's mediocrity out of the fifth spot in the rotation after finally giving up on Gio for the last time.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski at 20:21 | |

(This entry prompted by Red Auerbach's son's comments about his dad winning eight championships in a row, as quoted at the Deadspin post here.)

I don't get why no one talks about one of the most relevant facts: Red Auerbach only had eight or nine teams in the league when he was winning. Phil has had between twenty-seven and thirty. (Bill Simmons would argue at this point that the league is diluted, but the pool of available players has grown by at least three to four times in that time, hasn't it?) Simply as a matter of probability, it's a lot harder to win a championship today.

Let's also note that Phil won six championships in a row himself. From 1996 to 2002, the only non-Phil championship happened while he was out of the league.

I don't know if he's the greatest coach ever, because there are just too many intangible variables to consider in answering that question, but I think his coaching record is the best ever by a wide margin.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski at 12:41 | |

You're a complete idiot.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski at 19:23 | |

"There are 27 outs (in each game) and they are precious." Link.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski at 20:50 | |

Mike Brown is apparently on the verge of being out of a job. While it might be fair to excoriate him for apparently not having much of an offensive game-plan in the playoffs, the things he did right should be noted as well. First, he's apparently an excellent defensive coach -- I don't think just anyone could turn Ilgauskas, Varejao, Mo Williams (!), Delonte West, Wally, et al. into the third-best defensive team (on a points-per-possession basis) in the league. Even if LeBron is a fantastic defensive player, one great wing defender doesn't make a great defense.

Second even with all the high-profile offensive struggles at key spots in the playoffs, this was the fourth-best offensive team in the league, too. Let's be serious about his roster: Danny Ferry didn't give him much to work with. Ben Wallace? Joe Smith? Boobie Gibson? There were crunch-time players on this team that on most deep playoff teams would be 8th and 9th guys, solid role players to play 12 minutes a game bridging the first-second and third-fourth quarters. Can you really blame Brown for just giving LeBron the ball on an isolation? You'd prefer a Mo Williams - Anderson Varejao pick-and-roll perhaps?

I think there's a good chance Brown is not a great coach, but I also wonder if the available options are really going to be any better. Cleveland also has to think about LeBron in all this. Does he like Brown? Does he want Brown out? Honestly, the most important consideration is what LeBron thinks the team should do, because if they do something he disagrees with, they've all but guaranteed that he won't resign with them in 2010.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski at 11:07 | |

Nico at AN wants some things from the A's, mainly hustle and teaminess. These are nice things to have. The problem with what he wants is that he wants them "in ways that fans can see". That's just silly. A bunch of players clapping for their teammate from the dugout steps rather than from inside the dugout, congratulating them on the field rather than in the clubhouse, does nothing for the team. So why should they do it? It isn't a player's responsibility to visibly play hard -- it is only his responsibility to actually play hard. Anything beyond that is Pete Rose.

EDIT: In a follow-up, writing about Sunday's win over Texas, Nico writes, "Finally, let me just say that Dallas Braden plays with exactly the kind of energy and intensity I wish to see from all 25 guys, constantly motivating himself with comments to his glove and the ball between pitches ("Hit your f-ing spots!" "C'mon now, let's go!") and always ready to dive for anything near him." Again, I find this silly. I don't see Adam Kennedy doing this, and he hit two homers. I don't see Ryan Sweeney doing this -- he's the least-excited guy in the ballpark when he robs someone of a homer. Cust doesn't get emotional, and he's probably the best A's hitter. Reaching into near history, the stoic Mark Mulder was every bit as good as the emotional Tim Hudson. No, good ballplayers playing good ball is all any of us really needs.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski at 16:36 | |

There are still just under three minutes left in the game as I type this, but with the lead over twenty, I think it's safe to say L.A. is going to the Finals for the second straight year.

The main thought I have, and the one that I wonder whether the mainstream accounts will focus on, is that Denver had zero effort. The Lakers took hardly a contested shot all game. Sure, that was excellent, crisp ball movement, but that was also sloppy, lazy closeouts and rotations by Denver's defense. Carmelo getting caught in no-man's-land on an Ariza three, Sasha Vujacic being granted a wide-open corner three on a slowly developing break, Luke Walton catching a pass all alone under Denver's basket, and Walton hitting a corner twenty-footer with no one running at him all come to mind. Birdman and Kenyon Martin always bring the energy and effort on defense, but he seemed utterly alone in this game. That includes Carmelo, who had supposedly matured this season. That includes Chauncey, who's supposedly the solid veteran (despite constant bad shots and bad decisions leading to turnovers). In fact, Billups hammered the laziness point home: when Pau Gasol gathered in the rebound after Birdman flew in for a blocked shot on Shannon Brown's drive, rather than leave his feet to chase the ball as Gasol went for the putback, he stayed rooted to the floor and popped Gasol right in the head for a flagrant foul. It wasn't a dirty play, just a lazy one. Following directly as it did on Birdman's block, I thought that play was a microcosm of the entire game, especially since Pau hit both free throws.

So that's sad and it's unfortunate, but in the end, I'm a Lakers fan, and the Lakers won, so let's focus on them for a second. They obviously shot the ball very well. They've been given a lot of open shots throughout the playoffs, but they've spent a lot of time missing them. Tonight, though, they hit them. Vujacic hit his corner three, Ariza hit a bunch of open shots and also got to the bucket, Pau hit shots on the block, Kobe had a varied offensive performance, Luke Walton of all people hit his shots ... even Derek Fisher put in a three. The more important part of the offense going forward is how they got those shots, and the answer is through near-perfect execution. Kobe and Pau made passes out of the double teams, the ball got rotated, and the players receiving the passes made the right decisions, whether that was driving into the paint, taking the open jumper, or continuing the rotation to the next open man.

When it's a near wire-to-wire win, there just can't be much to talk about. Denver did take a brief lead in the second quarter, but aside from that, L.A. was entirely in control. So how about this: welcome to the Finals Shannon Brown, Andrew Bynum (last year doesn't count), Adam Morrison, Josh Powell, and Sun Yue. Congratulations to Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher on reaching their sixth NBA Finals.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski at 23:52 | |

From Mychael Urban: "Geren said Garciaparra, who has been on the DL 14 times during a career that many expect to eventually put him in the Hall of Fame, won't travel with the team to Texas and Chicago for a seven-game trip that starts with a doubleheader Friday." (emphasis added)

Really? Let's tally it up. Nomar had a great four years from 23 to 26, although after his rookie season, he never topped 143 games. He missed about 23 games a year from 24 to 26, twenty-three games where his team had to put below-average backups on the field for him. His age-27 season was destroyed by injury, and he played just 21 games. He played full seasons at 28 and 29, but was a diminished hitter, dropping from a 155 OPS+ at 26 to a 121 OPS+ at 29. He played only a half-season at 30, the year he was traded to the Cubs. At 31, he managed just 62 games. He made a comeback with the Dodgers as a first baseman, and had a 120 OPS+, but that number isn't as impressive when you're a first baseman instead of a shortstop. He hit horribly at 33 (78 OPS+), played 55 games of 105 OPS+ ball at 34, and has been mostly injured for the A's this year, and not hitting even when he's been healthy (another 78 OPS+).

In short, I think Urban is reaching. Garciaparra's peak has been reached by very few players in history: not many shortstops hit the way Nomar did. But career record matters too, and Nomar's career record says that, by WARP, he was a nine-win player at his peak and only once better than a one-win player during his decline. Hall of Famers stay on the field and contribute to their teams. Mickey Mantle, famously the injured superstar, played 1602 games from ages 23 to 34. Nomar's played in 1345, nearly two full season's worth of games fewer. Mark McGwire played in 1517, just over a full season's worth of games more than Nomar.

No, Nomar to the Hall of Fame is merely wishful thinking by Urban, and his "many expect" language is classic journalistic bullshit. Which people is he referring to?

(The inimitable Baseball Reference allowed me to quickly and easily calculate the games played figures for Mantle, Nomar, and Big Mac above.)

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski at 09:21 | |

• I told a few people before tonight's game that I was nervous. L.A. never really alleviated that nervousness until midway through the third period, when they got four straight turnovers on Denver and Shannon Brown threw down a nasty dunk with the Birdman coming back on defense to try to get the block. From there until midway through the fourth, it was all Lakers, as they went from down something like six or eight to up double-digits. Chauncey Billups talked before the game about feeling like a boxer who dominates a round until the last ten or twelve seconds, when the other fighter wakes up and throws a flurry. The problem with Chauncey's analogy is that the Nuggets have done very little actual dominating. If you dominate for 44 minutes and the Lakers flurry for four minutes, the Lakers won't win. No, the Nuggets have played well for 44 minutes, played better than the Lakers, but L.A., in their wins, dominated the other four.
• Lamar Odom woke up tonight. His points-per-shot wasn't fantastic, but he got on the glass very effectively and blocked a number of shots. He, Gasol, and Bynum all did very nice jobs, in fact. For a team derided over and over again for a lack of toughness, they did an awfully nice job blocking Denver shots, grabbing rebounds (although Denver did win the rebounding battle by one), scoring inside, and creating shots for other people.
• Gasol and Kobe both did great jobs creating for others. Kobe did his usual work with trap double-teams, working them away from the basket and making passes out to allow his teammates to go 4-on-3. For L.A.'s fourth-quarter flurry, this was working to perfection, resulting in multiple shots very near the basket. Gasol, meanwhile, as Jeff Van Gundy pointed out, created multiple shots for Trevor Ariza cutting to the basket as well as inside-outside passes to shooters on the perimeter.
• L.A. still missed a lot of open jumpers. They finished just 3-16 on threes, and they're not at team that shoots a lot of contested threes, so most of their 13 misses were open shots. With the inside game working so well, Phil Jackson seemed to go away from his shooters, Sasha, Farmar, and Fisher, in the second half in favor of Shannon Brown, Trevor Ariza, and Luke Walton, whose games are predicated on other skills, especially the first two, who Phil likes for defense. It was defense that broke the game open for L.A., as they didn't let Denver get anything inside and contested hard on jumpers outside.
• Derek Fisher finally hit a couple of shots. He still missed his two threes, but he did shoot 4-9 overall, which is fine. You can win games with Fisher shooting 4-9.
• Kenyon Martin took fifteen shots. L.A. will win Game 6 if Martin takes fifteen shots. He only made six, and most of the ones he made were early jumpers. He just doesn't have much offensive game. As Jeff Van Gundy emphasized repeatedly, when Martin is making shots, the coaches have to be disciplined and keep letting him take them. L.A. did exactly that and it paid off, as Martin started missing shots later in the game.
  
  A major benefit of Martin taking shots is that he's not in a good position to be an offensive rebounder. Every miss you can get from him is likely a defensive rebound for you.
• I'm shocked to see that Kobe had seven turnovers. It didn't seem like that to me.
• The officiating seemed fine. Van Gundy and Mark Jackson didn't have any complaints that I recall. To me there were really only two super-questionable calls: the Nene block/charge that fouled Nene out was either a charge because Pau put his arm out or a no-call because there just wasn't enough contact to blow the whistle; and Carmelo smacking Kobe right across the face on a drive being only called a regular foul cost L.A. a possession. That kind of hit is an established flagrant foul in the playoffs. I don't think Carmelo will get it upgraded tomorrow, but I also think that if they'd called a flagrant at the time, it wouldn't have been rescinded. It's really not clear to me how the refs decided that this particular hard hit across Kobe's face wasn't a flagrant foul. Because the game wasn't chippy? (By the way, how nice is it to see an NBA playoff game not get chippy?) Because Carmelo and Kobe are friends so obviously he doesn't want to hurt him? Because Kobe didn't fall down? I don't get it.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski at 23:49 | |

Dahntay Jones's trip on Kobe has been upgraded to a flagrant and Andrew Bynum's hack on Birdman has been downgraded to a personal foul. If Jones gets one more flagrant foul, he sits a game.

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski at 22:48 | |