By Jason Wojciechowski on July 21, 2014 at 10:20 PM
Mike Gallego is tied for 996th-most career bWAR among position players with 17.1. He is not active. There are active players who are going to pass him. He will, therefore, not be in the top 1000 for long. How long?
The top 15 active position players who are not yet in the top 1000:
- Adam Dunn, 16.8
- Stephen Drew, 16.0
- Melky Cabrera, 15.8
- Paul Goldschmidt, 15.6
- Corey Hart, 15.6
- Brendan Ryan, 15.6
- Michael Cuddyer, 15.3
- Carlos Santana, 15.3
- Clint Barmes, 15.2
- Jay Bruce, 15.0
- Nelson Cruz, 14.6
- Nick Punto, 14.6
- Chris Young, 14.6
- Adam LaRoche, 14.5
- Josh Donaldson (!), 14.0
Once five players pass Gallego, he's through. When's that going to be? I'll take a rough measure of these players' talent of WAR accumulation right now, figure how many plate appearances they'll need to pass Gallego, and see whereabouts that puts them on the calendar. Ready?
Adam Dunn over the last 3 1/2 years has accumulated -1.4 WAR in 2085 plate appearances. So he's going backwards and won't be catching Gallego. Next!
Stephen Drew: 4.4 WAR in 1291 plate appearances in the last 3 1/2 years. He needs 1.2 WAR to pass Gallego, so that should take him 351 plate appearances. He should get about 200 more plate appearances this year, and at the rate of 3.6 PA per game, will need 42 games next year to pass Gallego. For Drew, you'd figure that could come around game 45 or around game 150. Who knows. Let's figure midyear: July 15, 2015.
Melky Cabrera: In his last 2,018 PA, 10.4 WAR. Needs 1.4 to pass. That's 271 plate appearances. April 15, 2015.
Paul Goldschmidt: Career, 15.6 WAR in 1,906 PA. Needs 1.6 to pass. That's 195 plate appearances. September 25, 2014.
Corey Hart: Has 9.1 WAR in his last 1,982 PA (though he's negative in 195 PA this year after missing all of 2013, so let's halve his rate to 4.6 WAR in 1,982 PA). Also needs 1.6 to pass. That's 689 plate appearances. April 15, 2016. If it happens at all, which I don't think it will.
Brendan Ryan: Has 7.4 WAR in his last 1,368 PA, though more than all of that was in 2012 and 2013. Needs 1.6 to pass. Only needs 296 PA at that rate to pass, but he's only had 55 PA so far this year. So July 15, 2016.
Michael Cuddyer: Has 4.8 WAR in his last 1,649 PA. Needs 1.9 to pass, so 652 PA. Call that August 31, 2015.
Carlos Santana: 13.4 WAR in his last 2,291 PA. Needs 1.9 to pass, so 324 PA. April 25, 2015.
Clint Barmes: 5.9 WAR in his last 1,418 PA. Needs 2.0 to pass, so 481 PA. September 25, 2016.
Jay Bruce: 8.4 WAR in his last 2,323 PA. Needs 2.2 to pass, so 608 PA. July 25, 2015.
Nelson Cruz: 6.9 WAR in his last 2,021 PA. Needs 2.6 to pass, so 761 PA. September 25, 2015.
Nick Punto: 4.2 WAR in his last 878 PA. Needs 2.6 to pass, so 543 PA. June 1, 2017.
Chris Young: 6.9 WAR in his last 1,637 PA, but -0.1 WAR in his last 615. Would not actually bet on him getting 2.6 more WAR in his career.
Adam LaRoche: 6.7 WAR in his last 1,748 PA. Needs 2.7 to pass, so 704 PA. September 15, 2015.
Josh Donaldson: 14.3 WAR in his last 1,385 PA. Needs 3.2 to pass, so 310 PA. April 15, 2015.
So best guess for the date to be at the ballpark to see Mike Gallego fall out of the top 1000 career bWAR for position players is July 15, 2015, when Stephen Drew becomes the fifth man to pass Gallego. Get your tickets now!