JAVIER on the A's

Posted by Jason Wojciechowski on November 14, 2014 at 1:51 PM

Chris St. John has been building a minor-league stats system called JAVIER for a while now. The goal is to find a stats-only approach that can given a rough idea of how likely that player is to succeed in the majors. To be clear, St. John does not pretend, and we should not pretend, that this approach, or any stats-only approach, can replace scouting. The value, I think, in a system like this is to compare what the stats system says to what scouts say, perhaps to supplement the scouts, perhaps to find overlooked players whose tools don't excite anyone but who keep producing numbers such that we might expect them to produce in the majors notwithstanding no Troutian physical abilities.

So what's at the link is JAVIER's top 25 A's under the age of 25 as rated by JAVIER. Note that this includes some established major-leaguers (Derek Norris, Jarrod Parker) but does not include their major-league stats. So Norris is at the top of the heap even without accounting for the fact that he's got a career .274 True Average and 43.6 VORP already in the majors.

Anyway, take a gander and keep it in mind as Matt Olson, Daniel Robertson and Renato Nunez make their way up the chain.